Understanding the how species respond to climate change is essential for the maintenance of biodiversity. Historically climate has shaped the distribution of species; with oscillations between glacial maximum resulting in population expansions and contractions. The rate of anthropogenic climate change has exceeded initial predictions. Australia will be hotter and drier with more intense and frequent droughts and heat waves. To address how species will respond to these challenges we employ ecological niche models and population genomics using NSW Waratah (Telopea speciosissima) as a case study.

 Our previous work has demonstrated that coastal and upland populations have genetically and ecologically differentiated, despite evidence of genetic exchange at intermediate elevations. Here we present correlative models predicting the distribution and abundance of coastal and upland populations under LGM and future climate scenarios. NGS gemonic and transcriptomic are used to independently estimate effective population sizes and migration rates in coastal and upland populations. This study highlights the importance of historical and ecological processes in determining the capacity for species to respond to climate change.